Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Namibia
  • Ghana
  • Guinea
  • Togo

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $759,658$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{703,380.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 126.4)}}\) (asimptote \(703,380.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20,671$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(19,568.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,443$ on 2020-11-19

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,772$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,467.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 228.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105,467.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,541$ on 2020-11-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,002$ on 2020-11-19

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,082$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,198.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 206.1)}}\) (asimptote \(14,198.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 209.0)}}\) (asimptote \(161.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $421$ on 2020-11-19

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,006$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,829.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 200.3)}}\) (asimptote \(93,829.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,062$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,231.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 189.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,231.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,151$ on 2020-11-19

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $311,554$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{752,526.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 262.6)}}\) (asimptote \(752,526.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,090$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,374.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 245.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,374.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48,472$ on 2020-11-19

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $111,955$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,267.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 98.7)}}\) (asimptote \(104,267.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,508$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,116.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,116.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,883$ on 2020-11-19

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,658$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,404.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,404.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-11-19

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,121$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,186.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,186.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 98%
Namibia recovered 93%
Ghana recovered 86%
Cabo Verde recovered 63%
Guinea recovered 44%
Togo recovered 18%

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,662$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,154.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 162.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13,154.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $141$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{133.8}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 51.3)}}\) (asimptote \(133.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $339$ on 2020-11-19

Ghana⮸

Population $31,072,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,631$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,638.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.9)}}\) (asimptote \(48,638.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $323$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 119.6)}}\) (asimptote \(324.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,205$ on 2020-11-19

Guinea⮸

Population $13,132,795$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,713$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,821.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 111.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,821.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $75$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 90.5)}}\) (asimptote \(77.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $949$ on 2020-11-19

Togo⮸

Population $8,278,724$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,771$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,688.7}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 195.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,688.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $63$ on 2020-11-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109.4}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 215.9)}}\) (asimptote \(109.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $607$ on 2020-11-19