Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $759,658$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{703,380.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 126.4)}}\) (asimptote \(703,380.5\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20,671$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,568.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 129.6)}}\) (asimptote \(19,568.2\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $36,443$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,772$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,467.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 228.7)}}\) (asimptote \(105,467.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,541$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,002$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,082$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,198.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 206.1)}}\) (asimptote \(14,198.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $104$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 209.0)}}\) (asimptote \(161.5\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $421$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $76,006$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,829.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 200.3)}}\) (asimptote \(93,829.9\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,062$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,231.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 189.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,231.6\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,151$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $311,554$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{752,526.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 262.6)}}\) (asimptote \(752,526.5\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,090$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,374.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 245.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10,374.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48,472$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $111,955$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,267.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 98.7)}}\) (asimptote \(104,267.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,508$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,116.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,116.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,883$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,658$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,404.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,404.8\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47$ on 2020-11-19
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,121$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,186.7}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,186.7\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-19
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-19